From 78c8478c3cad228d5f8f900557dcbbc51f3a7275 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Orestis Malaspinas <orestis.malaspinas@hesge.ch>
Date: Wed, 25 Mar 2020 00:32:13 +0100
Subject: [PATCH] Added other model
---
covid/python/seir.py | 68 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++---------
1 file changed, 55 insertions(+), 13 deletions(-)
diff --git a/covid/python/seir.py b/covid/python/seir.py
index a9d852f..9142342 100644
--- a/covid/python/seir.py
+++ b/covid/python/seir.py
@@ -1,12 +1,22 @@
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import functools
+import matplotlib.animation as animation
swiss = np.array([2.100350058, 3.150525088, 4.900816803, 6.534422404, 10.501750292, 13.302217036, 24.970828471, 31.271878646, 39.323220537, 43.640606768, 57.292882147, 76.079346558, 100.116686114, 131.271878646, 158.576429405, 256.709451575, 256.709451575, 268.378063011, 309.218203034, 353.325554259, 453.675612602])
swiss = np.array([18, 27, 42, 56, 90, 114, 214, 268, 337, 374, 491, 652, 858, 1125, 1359, 2200, 2200, 2300, 2650, 3028, 3888])
days = np.array(range(1,len(swiss)+1))
+def update(i, lines, t, p):
+ n_pop, length = p.shape
+ for j in range(0, n_pop):
+ lines[j].set_data(t[0:i], p[j][0:i])
+ return lines
+
+def policy_r0(R_i, t):
+
+
def seir(y, t, R_0, Tinf, Tinc):
N = np.sum(y)
y1 = np.zeros(4)
@@ -16,6 +26,18 @@ def seir(y, t, R_0, Tinf, Tinc):
y1[3] = 1.0 / Tinf * y[2]
return y1
+
+def seihse(y, t, R_0, Tinf, Tinc, Thos, Tsev):
+ N = np.sum(y)
+ y1 = np.zeros(6)
+ y1[0] = - R_0 / Tinf * y[2] * y[0] / N # Sane
+ y1[1] = R_0 / Tinf * y[2] * y[0] / N - 1.0 / Tinc * y[1] # Exposed
+ y1[2] = 1.0 / Tinc * y[1] - 1.0 / Tinf * y[2] - 1.0 / Tinf * y[2] # Infectious
+ y1[3] = 1.0 / Tinf * y[2] + 1.0 / Thos * y[4] + 1.0 / Tsev * y[5] # Recovered
+ y1[4] = - 1.0 / Thos * y[4] + 1.0 / Tinf * y[2] - 1.0 / Tsev * y[4] # Hospitalized
+ y1[5] = - 1.0 / Tsev * y[5] + 1.0 / Thos * y[4] # Severe
+
+ return y1
def rk4(F, y, t, dt):
k1 = dt * F(y, t)
@@ -30,33 +52,35 @@ R_02 = 1 - 1/R_01
Tinf = 7.0
Tinc = 5.1
+Thos = 14.0
+Tsev = 14.0
+
N = 500000
I0 = 214 / 0.2
E0 = 2000
R0 = 0
S0 = N-E0-I0
+H0 = 0
+Sev0 = 0
t0 = 24
# max_t = 5*days[len(swiss)-1]
max_t = 200.0
-n_steps = 10000
+n_steps = 1000
dt = max_t / n_steps
-y0 = np.array([S0, E0, I0, R0])
+y0 = np.array([S0, E0, I0, R0, H0, Sev0])
y_list = [y0]
t_list = [t0]
for i in range(0, n_steps):
t = t_list[i] + dt
- foo = functools.partial(seir, R_0=R_0, Tinf=Tinf, Tinc=Tinc)
+ # foo = functools.partial(seir, R_0=R_0, Tinf=Tinf, Tinc=Tinc)
+ foo = functools.partial(seihse, R_0=R_0, Tinf=Tinf, Tinc=Tinc, Thos=Thos, Tsev=Tsev)
y1 = rk4(foo, y_list[i], t, dt)
y_list.append(y1)
t_list.append(t)
- if (t > t0 and t <= t0 + 30) or (t >= t0 + 60 and t <= t0 + 90) :
- R_0 = R_02
- else:
- R_0 = R_01
if (y1[1] + y1[2] < 1):
break
@@ -66,11 +90,29 @@ y = np.array(y_list)
p = np.transpose(y)
-plt.semilogy(t, p[0], 'b')
-plt.semilogy(t, p[1], 'r')
-plt.semilogy(t, p[2], 'k')
-plt.semilogy(t, p[3], 'g')
-# plt.semilogy(days, swiss, 'k*')
-plt.legend(['S', 'E', 'I', 'R', 'swiss'])
+
+fig = plt.figure()
+# ax = plt.axes(xlim=(-0.1*np.max(t),np.max(t)*1.1), ylim=(-0.1*np.max(p),np.max(p)*1.1))
+ax = plt.axes(xlim=(1,np.max(t)*1.1), ylim=(1,np.max(p)*1.1))
+
+lines = [plt.semilogy([], [], 'r-')[0],
+ plt.semilogy([], [], 'b-')[0],
+ plt.semilogy([], [], 'g-')[0],
+ plt.semilogy([], [], 'k-')[0],
+ plt.semilogy([], [], 'c-')[0],
+ plt.semilogy([], [], 'y-')[0] ]
+
+# anim = animation.FuncAnimation(fig, functools.partial(update, lines=lines, t=t, p=p),
+# frames=n_steps, interval=10, blit=True)
+
+anim = animation.FuncAnimation(fig, functools.partial(update, lines=lines, t=t, p=p),
+ frames=n_steps, interval=10, blit=True)
+
+# plt.semilogy(t, p[0], 'b')
+# plt.semilogy(t, p[1], 'r')
+# plt.semilogy(t, p[2], 'k')
+# plt.semilogy(t, p[3], 'g')
+# # plt.semilogy(days, swiss, 'k*')
+# plt.legend(['S', 'E', 'I', 'R', 'swiss'])
plt.show()
--
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